Some of my immediate reaction to Sunday's elections. As you can read, I don't foresee major changes to the stalemate that currently exists in Ukraine. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

That seems to be the two ends of the spectrum of the U.S. approach to China (and Russia too). Sooner or later, you have to craft an approach that will tilt toward one side or the other—one cannot simultaneously contain a partner. (The subject of this short essay in today’s National Interest on the question of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.)

Will “regime change” (or at least modification) to U.S. preferences occur before Iran crosses the nuclear finish line? My thoughts and your comments on the matter.

Compliments the piece that appeared in NI earlier this week.

Brian Whitmore has an interesting take on the Obama administration and foreign policy one year on: the nudge strategy. As he puts it, an incremental approach designed to create “structural incentives that the White House hopes will “nudge” troublesome states like Iran, Russia, and China toward greater cooperation with -- or less resistance to -- the United States.”

Also, the Ukraine That Might Have Been.

Laura Rozen reports that General Jones and Admiral Mullen will be headed to Moscow to get the START talks rolling again. My comment:

. . . how will the changed political climate in Washington affect the treaty negotiations? The Obama administration cannot afford to send to the Senate an agreement that appears to be making too many concessions to the Kremlin—but the Russian side is in no mood to compromise and in no hurry to hand the president any sort of foreign policy success. My prediction is that the talks will got bogged down in procedural details.

Some thoughts on the “day after” the Ukrainian elections (round one will be held this Sunday, January 17th).

My worries about the drift in U.S. policies vis-à-vis Latin America; is anyone doing the long-term thinking and planning?

Russia survived the crises of 2008-09; how it is set to cope with the next set of challenges on the horizon? I address that in a post for Tatiana Serafin's Global Market and Ideas blog. The Kremlin is not out of the woods yet.

The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, came to the Naval War College today to give a talk. I see it as giving us a glimpse at what is on his plate.

More detailed comments are over at Global Security.

One point I didn’t make at that site: he is aware of the need to connect the dots between the inevitable decline in U.S. defense budgets with enlisting allies, partners and coalitions to handle international security.

That’s what I argue in the New Atlanticist today. Partnership with Russia is not on the agenda; it is not a matter of rephrasing things nicely—because our interests and theirs are out of alignment.

Thanks to J. Peter Pham for the information . . .

International Maritime Bureau records that 214 ships were attacked in the waters off the Horn of Africa this year, with 47 successfully hijacked . . . there were 111 attacks in 2008 in comparison.

That piracy remains a profitable enterprise (so long as there are no serious sanctions against it)--he reports an $8 million ransom for the Chinese cargo ship MV De Xin Hai and the Singaporean boxship MV Kota Wojar seized near the Seychelles . . .

No sign that there will be any let-up in 2010 . . .

The Obama administration is running both out of time and out of options when it comes to Iran. Whether the most recent round of unrest in Iran helps the administration by posing a real challenge to the survivability of the regime remains to be seen. My assumption would be that if there is serious regime instability, the nuclear program gets put on hold, and that might buy the Obama team some additional time.

The subject of an essay in today’s Foreign Affairs.

Stumbling blocks for the U.S., of course: tolerating the level of brutality Najibullah employed to get to the top; and a willingness to keep the gravy train flowing into Kabul.

Comments welcomed.

Some of my reaction to the presidential visit to China over at World Politics Review. Beijing is becoming much more confident in how it handles the bilateral relationship and this will certainly have an impact on the fifth generation of leadership.

Speaking of which, I came across an interesting report on the matter by Cheng Li; I am struck by some of the similarities one might draw with the Kremlin leadership, at least the younger members, in terms of diversity on one hand but the “we are all in the same boat” on the other in terms of preserving the system.

Query for TWR readers: any good Chinese studies of the Orange Revolution in Ukraine?

Just some thoughts on the resignation of White House counsel Greg Craig. Perhaps I'm overestimating the impact, but one of the undercurrents I have started to detect from other countries regarding the Obama administration is that talk is not followed by action . . . something I am monitoring.

Comments welcomed.