THE DAY the coalition forces invaded Iraq in March 2003, the conflict in Afghanistan became a sideshow for the United States. By default, it became the main event for NATO. Yet, the operation could be NATO’s death knell, unless its members begin to deal with the organization and with each other more realistically. The road to victory in Afghanistan now runs through Brussels. It is time to decide whether this is a political alliance with a military purpose or a military alliance with a political cause. If the current scenario continues, NATO cannot succeed in Afghanistan, and therefore NATO cannot succeed anywhere; this is a clear and present danger.

Victory is thwarted by endemic problems within the alliance, with far deeper roots than the operation in Central Asia. Indeed, the sad situation of the NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan reflects the much harsher reality of NATO’s lack of strategic direction, largely due to its fragmented political will. As a result, it has lost its most crucial historical asset, through which it won the Cold War: the power of deterrence. In this most recent adventure, the Taliban, having tested ISAF and finding it pliable, is not afraid, and there is a danger that other potential opponents will follow suit. All of this is a legacy of NATO’s Cold War inception.