It will be a long time before China can directly establish a physical presence in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf, but, as indicated earlier, its westward reach by land is increasing, and eventually its maritime capabilities will permit expansion into the Indian Ocean. If this takes place against a background of U.S.-Sino-Indian cooperation, then China's growing Middle East role will pose no vital threat to American or Indian interests. But if events take a different turn and the new century sees increasing competition and antagonism between the Asian giants, then a more classical model of the Asian balance of power could evolve.

In anticipation of such developments, some advocates of the U.S.-Indian strategic relationship see it as an essential element in an inevitable struggle with China. But Indians will not play this role unless their own relations with China seriously worsen. For this reason the United States should not overplay the benefit of the new relationship with India. Rather, the United States should accept that both India and China are going to be more assertive powers in the years ahead and the United States will have to adjust to the reality that it cannot, and should not, be the perpetual policeman of a region of the world that has caused it great anguish and for which it has received little gratitude. One effect of the U.S. domestic debate about the current crises in the Middle East has been to burst the bubble of imperial exuberance that followed the initial successes in Afghanistan and Iraq. It remains to be seen whether a more sober America will emerge--still committed to Middle East stability and reform but less inclined to flaunt its exceptionalism and more prepared to work with the emerging Asian giants who both have growing stakes in the region.

Geoffrey Kemp is director of Regional Strategic Programs at the Nixon Center. He served as special assistant to President Reagan and was senior director for Near East and South Asian affairs on the National Security Council staff.

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