Finally, I certainly hope that Weisberg is right that moderates will prevail over the Communists within the ANC.  Part of my pessimism stems just from personally witnessing the extraordinary extremes of wealth and poverty in South Africa, far more visible than in any Western democracy.  Under those conditions, it seems to me that even if Margaret Thatcher were elected head of the ANC tomorrow in place of Mandela, she would be forced to heed her constituency's perfectly understandable demands for immediate improvement in their housing, education, health care, and the like through massive government social spending.  The fact that the resources simply do not exist to bring the vast majority of black South Africans up to white living standards will not seem like a plausible counter, when so many are so wretched.

On the other hand, recent developments give some grounds for hope.  The ANC's recent congress in Durban turned out very well, both in the efficiency of its execution and in the fact that it elevated pragmatists like Cyril Ramaphosa over militants like Chris Hani.  It is, in fact, de Klerk's government whose credibility has suffered a serious setback as a result of revelations of its funding of Inkatha and its at least indirect fostering of township violence.  Let us hope that what we are witnessing is a period of adjustment as all of South Africa's diverse ethnic groups and political forces get used to the fact that they will have to live with one another over a very long period of time.

Francis Fukuyama is a consultant to the RAND Corporation.

Essay Types: Essay