Summary: Recent analysis suggests China may be preparing for military action in the Indo-Pacific, with multiple potential targets identified based on strategic and geopolitical interests. These include the Philippines for dominance in the South China Sea, India for control over water sources in Ladakh, and Taiwan, a longstanding focus of Chinese territorial claims.

-Additionally, Japan's Senkaku Islands could be a strategic target due to historical animosities and as a means to rally nationalist support within China amid economic downturns.

-This approach might allow China to avoid direct conflict over more populated areas while achieving a propaganda victory and advancing its regional dominance ambitions.

China’s Military Strategy: From Taiwan to the Senkaku Islands

I would argue that after years of research looking at the security situation in the Indo-Pacific China is getting ready to attack.

We don’t know where, when, or how or why. But most experts will tell you that the Chinese appear more likely to take aggressive action—however limited—against one or many nearby targets. 

Some of those targets include the Philippines, where the Chinese military is vying for dominance in the South China Sea. Another potential target is against India for control over the northern Indian Ladakh Province (which would allow for China to dominate the water sources of the Tibetan Plateau). 

One more target could be Taiwan, China’s greatest geopolitical obsession. 

A final, less talked about target, could be Japan. Specifically, the Japanese controlled Senkaku Islands of the East China Sea. 

China Hates Japan

While China could surprise the world and go-for-broke against Taiwan, doing so without first securing certain strategic points, such as the South China Sea or the East China Sea, before initiating either an invasion and/or blockade of Taiwan would be foolish. 

Plus, an invasion of Taiwan might be far costlier than what China is willing to pay. 

After all, despite the tensions and hostilities, most Chinese living on the mainland view Taiwan as being populated by fellow Chinese. There is some discomfort with going to war with their fellow Chinese, even if they disagree on the status of Taiwan.

Nevertheless, as China’s economy slows down, China’s ruler-for-life is desperate to maintain power and avoid criticism for the declining economic prospects in China under his reign. One way to do that would be to appeal to the flag. By goading nationalist sentiments among his people, President Xi could prevent his awful economy from taking his rule down. 

And if Xi were to fixate that nationalist sentiment not on neighboring Taiwan (at least not yet), but instead on the Japanese-held Senkaku Islands (China calls them the “Diaoyu Islands”), Xi’s mission of galvanizing support just might work.

That’s because almost every Chinese citizen has a negative view of Japan. Of course, China suffered greatly under Japanese imperial occupation during the Second World War. Beijing has done a good job of nursing hatred toward the Japanese for the last 80 years among the general Chinese population. 

Further, China has long viewed Japan with disdain ever since China was the dominant imperial power of the region, centuries before the West ever set foot in the Far East as colonizers and long before the rise of the Japanese Empire.

It was especially humiliating to endure the abuses that Japan subjected China to in WWII, considering how superior China thought it was relative to Japan. Those grievances toward Japan have only continued, since the Japanese are viewed as little more than proxies for the United States. And, according to China’s rulers, the US is behaving as the old European colonial empires had more than a century ago because Washington is trying to keep China down.

The fact that the Senkaku islands are not populated also lend themselves to being a tempting target for Xi Jinping. Chinese parents do not want to see their beloved sons die in an invasion of Taiwan. 

America Won’t Go to War with China Over the Senkaku Islands

Beyond that, Chinese parents likely understand that warring with Japan over anything other than the empty Senkakus would likely kill their sons as well. But the Senkakus being little more than abandoned rocks in a contested East China Sea means that Xi Jinping could get his propaganda victory by rallying his people around their favorite villain, Japan, while probably getting a win by taking the Senkaku Islands.

It is, after all, unlikely that Japan would risk direct war with China over the islands, no matter how much they claim the right to defend their claim to those islands. This is because Japan would need America’s backing to hold onto the islands and stop whatever military operations that China might have planned in the East China Sea. 

Given the Biden Administration’s overall reticence to rein China in—especially as Biden escalates the proxy war with Russia over Ukraine—the probability is low that Washington would commit itself to defending the Senkaku Islands. 

The Senkaku Islands are not viewed by Washington as worth getting involved in a shooting war with China over. So, if—and when—China decided to hit Japan over the Senkaku Islands, it’d be a nasty affair that would likely end with China taking the islands. But don’t be fooled by concerns by ordinary Chinese about being uncomfortably with fighting fellow Chinese in Taiwan.

It Won’t Stop with the Senkakus

Capturing the Senkaku Islands and becoming the dominant power in the East China Sea, taking key territories in the South China Sea from the Philippines, these are but stepping stones for China to slowly surround and strangle Taiwan, Xi’s ultimate prize.

 After taking the South and East China Seas, China would rapidly move on outlying Taiwanese territories, such as the Penghu Islands, as well as the Kinmen and Matsu Islands, eventually moving to claim southern Taiwan as part of a larger invasion of the island. 

Anyone paying attention to the rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific must not write off the possibility that China is readying to strike at Japan over the Senkaku Islands and that this is part of a larger strategy to encircle, cut off, and conquer Taiwan. 

About the Author

Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is due October 22 from Encounter Books. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.