Summary: In a significant but ultimately unsuccessful military operation, the Kremlin orchestrated its largest armored assault in the ongoing 25-month conflict in Ukraine, reminiscent of historical battles yet failing to achieve a breakthrough. This assault, centered around Avdiivka, saw Russia deploying 48 tanks and fighting vehicles in a tactically flawed maneuver along a single road, leading to the destruction of at least a dozen tanks and eight infantry fighting vehicles. The D.C.-based Institute for The Study of War reports that this attack marked the first battalion-sized mechanized assault since late October 2023, involving the Russian 6th Tank Regiment. Despite heavy losses, including geolocated imagery showing numerous destroyed Russian armored units, the outcome underscores a persistent war of attrition. Ukraine's 47th Separate Mechanised Brigade claimed to have inflicted substantial Russian casualties and vehicle losses. The event highlights both the resilience of Ukrainian forces and the strategic challenges facing Russia as it continues to replace losses in an increasingly costly conflict.

Kremlin's Largest Armored Assault in Ukraine Falters: A Tactical Misstep Amidst War of Attrition

It wasn't on the scale of the now infamous Battle of Kursk during the Second World War, nor was it even comparable to the First World War's Battle of Cambrai – yet, on Saturday, the Kremlin launched its largest armored assault of its 25-month-long war in Ukraine. 

Just as the British attempted to mount a massive tank assault in 1917 at Cambrai, and Germany sought to reverse its fortunes on the Eastern Front at Kursk in 1943, Russia too likely hoped it would see a breakthrough. Instead, the fighting outside of Avdiivka will be remembered as another defeat in which the attacker squandered its armored resources.

In the case of this past weekend's attack, Russia essentially replayed the same mistakes from its playbook from two years ago by sending 48 tanks and fighting vehicles down a single road. At least a dozen of the tanks were destroyed along with eight infantry fighting vehicles.

"Ukrainian forces appear to have repelled a Russian battalion-sized mechanized assault near Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast (province), on March 30 ­ the first battalion-sized mechanized assault since Russian forces began the campaign to seize Avdiivka in late October 2023," reported the D.C.-based Institute for The Study of War.

Russia's force included units of the Russian 6th Tank Regiment of the 98th Tank Division. It may have committed as many as 36 tanks and 12 infantry fighting vehicles in its assault on the village of Tonenke to the west of Adviikvka.

"Geolocated imagery published on March 31 shows a large number of destroyed and damaged Russian armored vehicles and tanks along a road northwest of Tonenke," ISW added.

ISW has suggested that the Kremlin may have prioritized the Adviikvka region as the site of a spring offensive, but if this is the case it got off to a rocky start.

"The scale of the Russian mechanized assault on March 30 is significant. Russian forces have not conducted a mechanized assault this large since the beginning of the Russian localized offensive effort to seize Avdiivka in late October 2023, when Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed almost 50 Russian tanks and over 100 armored vehicles. on October 19-20, 2023."

How Many Vehicles Were Lost?

In a post on the Telegram social messaging app, Ukraine's 47th Separate Mechanised Brigade claimed it was responsible for the deaths of almost 1,300 Russians and the destruction of 28 vehicles – including one tank and 17 armored vehicles.

Russia's casualties have not been independently verified nor is it clear how many Ukrainian troops and vehicles were lost in the recent fighting.

Both sides are now fighting a war of attrition, but Russia has continued to replace its losses. The question now is whether that will remain true if it has indeed lost a dozen or more tanks in one futile assault. More importantly, even if the vehicles can be quickly replaced, the soldiers cannot be – and just as Ukraine's offensive made little progress last year, Russia's expected offensive could already be doomed to fail.

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.

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