Even with the prospect of a nationwide vaccine rollout in the coming months, coronavirus-related deaths in the United States have been forecast to double by April 1, according to a new report published by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine. 

IHME, which is primarily funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, added that daily deaths will peak at about three thousand in mid-January and the overall toll will likely hit 539,000.

Within recent weeks, the ten-month-long pandemic has only gained momentum to infect and kill a record number of people on a daily basis. For the first time, the United States is reporting a weekly average of more than two thousand coronavirus-related deaths per day, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Many hospitals across the country, which are already at full capacity, are having trouble admitting even more sick patients. As of Saturday, more than a hundred thousand people in the United States were hospitalized due to coronavirus, according to the COVID Tracking Project.

In all, more than 282,000 people in the United States have died from the virus and 14.8 million have been infected.

According to the researchers, vaccines will prevent only nine thousand deaths by April, but did note that a rapid vaccine rollout targeting high-risk individuals could help save fourteen thousand more lives.

“Mass scale-up of vaccination in 2021 means we have a path back to normal life, but there are still a few rough months ahead,” IHME Director Christopher Murray said in a news release. 

“We must be vigilant in protecting ourselves at least through April, when, as our projections indicate, vaccines will begin to have an impact.” 

The report also contended that reaching a 95-percent compliance on mask-wearing, combined with the expected vaccine rollout, has the potential to save sixty-six thousand lives by April 1. Even with a viable vaccine, if states do not act to bring current surges down to more manageable levels, the death toll could reach 770,000.

As a result, the researchers have called on all states to implement public health mandates to contain the spread and relieve pressure on the health-care system.  

“Especially in the Northern Hemisphere, it’s crucial for governments to impose or re-impose mandates that limit gatherings and require masks,” Murray said.  

“Where the winter surge is driving spikes in infections, there will be many people who can still become infected and possibly die before the vaccine is fully rolled out.”

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Minneapolis-based Science and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn.  

Image: Reuters