Is it all over? Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin has a gloomy take on the prospects for American aid to Ukraine today. It goes something like this: far-right House Republicans are winning. They’ve schemed from the beginning to torpedo aid by linking it to immigration. Rogin zeroes in on House speaker Mike Johnson, arguing that “if Congress lets Ukraine aid lapse without acting, the history books will hold Johnson and Trump responsible for helping Russia win the war.”

CNN reports that former president Donald Trump’s opposition to Ukraine aid is what’s stiffening opposition in Congress. There can be no doubt that Trump, fresh off his victory in the Iowa caucus, has enjoyed a Lazarus-like comeback. His support for January 6 and the storming of the Capitol has largely been put in the rear-view mirror. None of his trials may take place before the election—the Georgia election case is in tumult because of misconduct accusations against Fulton County district attorney Fani Willis, and US district judge Tanya Chutkan is indicating that the criminal case against Trump may be delayed way past its scheduled March date. Trump is now flexing his muscles in Washington, where he is encouraging House Republicans to defy Joe Biden on the border and Ukraine.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, who is in close contact with Trump, seems averse to bringing up a Ukraine aid bill. With conservatives already enraged by his approval for extending the funding of the federal government, he has little incentive to defy them once more on assistance to Ukraine. He says that he isn’t fixated on Ukraine but is concerned about a “national security and a humanitarian catastrophe” inside America’s border.

The question is whether Johnson will remain intransigent. To what degree is he engaging in public posturing, and to what degree will he seek a way out from the current impasse? Some Democrats are proposing a deal to protect Johnson himself should he allow a vote on aid. House Armed Services Committee ranking member Adam Smith, for example, is making it clear that Democrats would vote to support Johnson as speaker were he to face a revolt from his right-wing flank.

For now, Johnson and other conservatives are banking that Trump can win the presidency and they can get the immigration bill they truly want after 2024.

More seasoned legislators, such as Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, know this is likely a pipedream. If Senate Republicans and the Biden administration reach a compromise on the border and send the bill to the House, the onus will be on Johnson. If he kills the bill, it hands Biden a political victory. And if the House narrowly passes the bill, it’s also a triumph for Biden.

Biden’s progressive flank will denounce him for caving to conservative demands on the border, but his readiness to compromise has served him well in the past. Biden’s whole presidency has been premised on the contention that he could restore normalcy to Washington. A legislative win on the border would be no small achievement for him. But if the House Republicans balked, he could head into the election year like Harry Truman in 1948—he could denounce a do-nothing Congress that sold out America’s allies in Ukraine, threatened international alliances, and refused to entertain any compromise on the border to boot.

This is why a Ukraine financial aid deal is not dead. There are plenty of reasons for Republicans to support it. This is why Rogin and others may be premature in declaring Ukraine aid null and void. Trump’s battle with Biden and McConnell is not over. It has just begun.

About the Author: Jacob Heilbrunn

Jacob Heilbrunn is editor of The National Interest and is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He has written on both foreign and domestic issues for numerous publications, including The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, Reuters, Washington Monthly, and The Weekly Standard. He has also written for German publications such as Cicero, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, and Der Tagesspiegel. In 2008, his book They Knew They Were Right: the Rise of the Neocons was published by Doubleday. It was named one of the one hundred notable books of the year by The New York Times. He is the author of America Last: The Right’s Century-Long Romance with Foreign Dictators, coming in 2024.

Image: Evan Al-Amin / Shutterstock.com.