Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for president. Again. Trump’s nomination, which now appears entirely inevitable, will mark Trump’s third consecutive. And while Trump’s first nomination will always be the most shockingly improbable, the third nomination will catch observers off-guard, too – largely because of how Trump refused to concede defeat after the 2020 election.

In refusing to concede defeat after losing to President Biden in 2020, Trump violated the rules of presidential decorum in a way that, previously, would have disqualified him from holding political office again.

But times have changed – in large part because of Trump’s influence. And Trump, who faces 91 separate criminal charges in four distinct cases, will once again be an improbable nominee.

And once Trump has the nomination in hand, he’ll be squared away for a rematch against Biden, which enables the possibility that Trump will once again lose, and once again refuse to admit defeat.

Would Donald Trump refuse to admit defeat, again?

At the moment, Trump is edging out incumbent President Biden in the polls. But the polls are just polls, and the election is still nine months off.

Nine months is a long time when you’re dealing with Donald Trump. A lot could happen.

And whatever will happen may well manifest in the rise or fall of Trump’s political viability. The point being, we don’t know who will win the 2024 election.

But let’s assume Trump has a ballpark 50 percent shot of winning – and a ballpark 50 percent shot of losing. While many liberals fear a second Trump term above all else, some liberals similarly fear a Trump defeat – for fear that a defeated Trump will forcefully contest the election results.

After losing in 2020, Trump did refuse to acknowledge defeat. Trump’s behavior was regrettable and his rhetoric harmful. But Trump did, ultimately, step down from office and allow for a peaceful transition to the Biden administration – which is what counts in the end. So, despite Trump’s unfortunate rhetoric, fear of a Trump, or Trump-adjacent, coup-like-event may be overblown.

Regardless of the significance of a Trump concession refusal, the majority of Americans, me included, suspect Trump would refuse to acknowledge defeat after a 2024 loss.

“Nearly three-quarters of Americans, 74 percent, believe former President Trump will refuse to concede if he loses the 2024 election, a significant increase from similar surveys in 2020,” The Hill reported. “Only about a quarter of respondents said they believe President Biden would not concede if he lost in November, 23 percent.”

After losing in 2020, the basis of Trump’s claim was that the election had been rigged through mail-in voting ballots. The claims were unfounded (and, ironically, likely prevented eventual Trump voters from mailing in their ballots). If Trump lost again in 2024, would his claims be similar? That mail-in ballots had been rigged? Who knows. Possibly. Trump often employs reasoning and rhetoric that is only partially grounded in reality. How he refutes a 2024 election loss is anyone’s guess.

Trump “has already sown the seeds of 2020 election denial rhetoric for the 2024 race,” The Hill reported. “Trump has repeatedly warned that Democrats could rig the general election against him, and he has repeated the 2020 election fraud claims that opponents have dubbed “The Big Lie.”

So, if Trump loses, he may well refuse to concede defeat. But first, Trump will need to lose.

About the Author: Harrison Kass

Harrison Kass is a defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.

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