Amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, a surprising new entrant has emerged as a potential mediator—China. However, China is encountering its own set of difficulties in this high-stakes diplomatic endeavor. Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, recently held discussions with officials in Washington. These talks come when concerns about the looming possibility of a regional war have intensified.

There is a hope that the United States will collaborate with China to seek a resolution. Wang has also directly reached out to both his Israeli and Palestinian counterparts. Beyond Wang’s efforts, China’s Middle East special envoy, Zhai Jun, has embarked on a mission to the Middle East to engage with Arab and Israeli leaders and advocate for a ceasefire at the United Nations. China’s distinct role as a diplomatic mediator in the Middle East hinges on its positive relationships with a range of regional players, including the Palestinians, Gulf Arab nations, Iran, and Turkey. However, the question remains: can China do the impossible task, which is brokering peace between Israel and Hamas?

Earlier this year, China managed to bring Iran and Saudi Arabia closer, initiating a potential reconciliation between Riyadh and Tehran. However, in the past three weeks, this progress has disintegrated. There is some evidence that Iran influenced Hamas to attack on October 7, potentially sabotaging chances for normalized relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv.

Some experts play down China’s significance in Middle Eastern politics, arguing that Beijing has no security interests in the region and does not desire to upend the status quo. Additionally, Beijing’s initial statement following the conflict’s onset raised concerns since it neither explicitly condemned Hamas nor recognized Israel’s right to self-defense.

Recent internal developments have added complexity to China’s delicate stance on the Palestinian issue. President Xi Jinping’s emphasis on the importance of an independent Palestinian state aligns with China’s historical support for the cause. However, China has strengthened its economic connections with Israel in recent years. Online discussions in China have seen a surge in anti-Semitic rhetoric, causing unease in diplomatic circles. Some individuals have even drawn parallels between Israel’s actions and Nazism, which prompted a quick response from the German Embassy in Beijing. Furthermore, a recent incident in which an unknown man stabbed an Israeli Embassy staff member has contributed to the discomfort, making it difficult for China to foster further engagement with the Israeli government. 

The primary, if not the foremost, motivation for China’s engagement in the Middle East conflict lies in its substantial economic stakes. An escalation of the conflict poses a risk to China’s foreign oil imports, a significant portion of which originates from the Gulf region. China is the world’s leading importer of crude oil, with daily imports reaching as high as 11 million barrels this year. Conflict will spike oil prices, handing Beijing extra economic problems amid an economic slowdown arising from Covid shutdown policies and real estate bubbles. A war could also threaten Chinese investment and trade (worth hundreds of billions of dollars) in the Middle East.

China has taken aim at U.S. influence in the Middle East conflict, which can be viewed as part of its strategy to counterbalance America’s global position. However, this approach also carries the risk of undermining China’s own diplomatic stance. Both Xi and Wang have openly criticized Washington’s policy of prioritizing Israel’s interests over the Palestinian cause, which they believe contributed to the actions of Hamas on October 7. At the same time, China has been cautious not to align with terrorism overtly.

Despite its efforts to back Palestine and enhance connections with Muslim-majority countries, China has another obstacle. Beijing faces allegations of human rights abuses and genocide, particularly against the Uyghur Muslim minority in Xinjiang province. These issues could potentially strain China’s relations with Arab countries. Some experts contend that China’s strategy of supporting Palestine may be an attempt to garner favor, and it may not be a universally applicable solution. 

Furthermore, there is a broad spectrum of opinions on Chinese engagement within the Arab world itself. Even though Wang Yi has reaffirmed China’s commitment to fostering peace in the Middle East, highlighting that China’s engagement in the Palestinian matter is free from any selfish motives. Nevertheless, China must not forget that Israel and Palestine have different interests. Palestine clearly needs China’s support, but Israel, where arguably security provision is more required due to its greater economy, will be harder to convince.

Aswin Lin is a Ph.D. candidate at the International Doctoral Program in Asia-Pacific Studies (IDAS) at the National Chengchi University, Taiwan.

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