China will certainly be a participant in these NEOs and in coordinating all of the operations will be a problem of immense proportions. A possible framework for planning and cooperation might include the following: First, states with plans for NEOs should begin quiet meetings to share their preparations. It will be crucial that these efforts appear to be routine planning and avoid having them become a signal that conflict is on the horizon. Militaries often conduct NEO exercises and these could be part of routine military-to-military contacts. Second, once an NEO begins, very little is likely to go according to plans. As the old saying goes, “no military plan survives first contact with the enemy.” A model for dealing with the necessary ad hoc coordination once NEOs have begun is the model used for counter-piracy operations off the Horn of Africa between the Combined Maritime Forces and China under SHADE—Shared Awareness and Deconfliction mechanism. SHADE has received high marks as a means to coordinate the various counter-piracy units in the region. Finally, the United Nations Command may be another vehicle for coordinating NEOs, although this would require that China forget about the role that the UNC played in fighting the People’s Volunteer Army during the Korean War. In any case, efforts to coordinate the NEO efforts of China and others will be good news for Chinese residents in Korea and other foreign nationals on the peninsula.

Katsuya Yamamoto is a captain in the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, Japan’s liaison officer, and an international professor at the U.S. Naval War College.

Terence Roehrig is the national-security affairs director of the Asia-Pacific Studies Group at the U.S. Naval War College.

The views expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not reflect those of the Japanese or U.S. governments or the JMSDF or U.S. Navy.

Image: Reuters

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