Israel has demonstrated that it will not hesitate to act before a danger grows if it will meet two thresholds: preserve Israeli security and delay the military capacity of their adversaries before they have an opportunity to mobilize. Thus, the Israel Air Force under Southern Command may unleash a separate air campaign against rocket-launching pads in Gaza on the expectation that Palestinian factions in the coastal strip would obey Iran’s orders. This operation would be both similar and drastically different from the 2008-2009 Cast Lead or 2014 Protective Edge: missile stockpiles, training centers and command-and-control nodes would be hit, but a partial ground incursion into Gaza would be off the table and likely seen as unnecessary to the task at hand.

Conclusion

The truth is, we don’t know what Israel is planning or whether an Israeli prime minister would risk rupturing its relationship with the United States by striking Iran’s nuclear program from the air. The failure to provide advance notice before an operation commenced would be viewed by the White House with derision, particularly if the Israelis decided to hit Iran’s nuclear program during the next year and a half of the Obama administration. But, given the existential nature that Prime Minister Netanyahu assigns to the Iranian nuclear issue, an Israeli operation—even in a post-JCPOA world—is a development that could be more probable than we think.

Daniel R. DePetris is an analyst at Wikistrat, Inc., a geostrategic consulting firm, and a freelance researcher. He has also written for CNN.com, Small Wars Journal and The Diplomat.

Image: Flickr/Israeli Air Force