While it is too early to write Modi off at this stage, there is a decent chance that the BJP, which he leads, could lose the 2019 national elections. This is especially possible if the major opposition parties can build coalitions that make most of the parliamentary races into two-way contests. This will hinge on the sagacity of the leaders of the major opposition parties and their ability and willingness to work together.

Mohammed Ayoob is a senior fellow at the Center for Global Policy in Washington, DC and University Distinguished Professor Emeritus of International Relations at Michigan State University