These Five People Will Make or Break an Iran Nuclear Deal

March 4, 2015 Topic: Diplomacy

These Five People Will Make or Break an Iran Nuclear Deal

Deal or no deal? These 5 leaders will decide.

That single quote pretty much sums up Netanyahu’s position on Iran since he became Israel’s prime minister for the second time in 2009.

President Barack Obama

It goes without saying that the leader of the free world would be a make-or-break figure in the Iranian nuclear negotiations. But it’s a bit different for President Obama, a man who sees the Iran nuclear file in personal terms.

Almost immediately after his 2009 inauguration, he reached out to Ayatollah Khamenei with a series of secret letters broaching the subject of a new, more constructive relationship. As the Wall Street Journal reported last week, Khamenei and his staff answered at least one of those letters with a secret letter of their own. Given that the letters are classified, we don’t know what was (or wasn’t) said. Yet the fact that Khamenei bothered to reply to them at all was a sliver of hope that the Iranians were at least open to Obama’s overtures.

President Obama has defended the talks with Iran every step of the way. Although Obama pulled back from discussions in 2010 and 2011 and opted instead for a more rigorous package of economic sanctions (which Congress was eager to pass), the move was designed to convince Tehran that coming back to the negotiating table and engaging seriously with the United States, Europe, China and Russia was a better option than waiting out the economic pain.

If the P5+1 does reach an agreement with Tehran in late March, it will be President Obama’s job to speak directly to the American people, to skeptical if not hostile members of Congress and to Washington’s friends and allies in Israel and the Arab world about how the accord keeps Iran in check and why it’s a better alternative than the use of military force. Only a president who promised to “unclench” the fist of America’s historical adversaries during his first campaign can play the role of lobbyist-in-chief.

Daniel R. DePetris is an analyst at Wikistrat, Inc., a geostrategic consulting firm, and a freelance researcher. He has also written for CNN.com, Small Wars Journal and The Diplomat. You can follow him on Twitter: @DanDePetris.

Image: Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran