Media dissent has largely been silenced through the state seizure of media groups associated with the Gülen movement over the course of 2014–15; the available space for contradicting the official narrative is shrinking daily. Gülen’s founder, Fethullah Gülen, has himself been accused of orchestrating a terrorist group, the Fethullah Gülenist Terrorism Organisation (FETÖ); alleged membership in the group has been used to target outspoken businesses in Turkey.

A dark shadow on the horizon is the March 19 arrest of Reza Zarrab in Miami. Zarrab, an Iranian-Azeri businessman with Turkish citizenship, is alleged to have been involved in fraud and embezzlement on behalf of Iran to avoid international sanctions. Zarrab was involved in a so-called “gold for oil” scheme, operated out of Turkey before being flagged by international regulators in 2012.

Zarrab was heavily implicated in a December 2013 graft investigation around Erdoğan’s closest allies. If he is convicted of the charges against him from the U.S. Department of Justice, any high-level complicity by Erdoğan that comes to light could prove extremely embarrassing.

By shifting the domestic narrative to confronting imagined terror threats in Turkey’s political opposition, Erdoğan can at once distract attention away from the failings of his administration and fundamentally discredit his opponents, perhaps even opening them up to legal prosecution. Terrorism is clearly a real threat in Turkey, but its risk and significance are being manipulated as part of a political project that will fundamentally undermine the stability of the state.

Jack A. Kennedy is the lead Middle East & North Africa analyst at West Sands Advisory Ltd., a business intelligence, investigations and political advisory firm that has, since 2006, helped clients identify opportunities and reduce risk in emerging and frontier markets.

Image: Flickr/Recep Tayyip Erdoğan